Machine Learning Integration with Random Parameter Tobit Model for Sustainable Road Safety Improvement

Abstract

Pakistan is a developing country. Its transportation infrastructure mainly consists of road network. About 95% passengers and fright is transported using the road network. This high demand on road network is because of the unreliable railway system between the cities. Due to such high demand on road network the accident involvement risk of an individual is much high as compared to developed countries. This study uses a new modeling approach to estimate road safety risk for WTP.  A correlated random parameters Tobit model (heterogeneity-in-mean) is integrated with machine learning (Decision tree).  The decision tree categorizes higher-order interactions, while the model captures unobserved correlations and heterogeneity. The framework examines WTP determinants using a representative sample of 3178 road users from Pakistan. The model estimates WTP for different (fatal and severe injury) risk reductions to monetize road traffic crash costs. Results show maximum respondents are willing to support safety improvement policies. The model reveals significant WTP heterogeneity linked to perceptions of road safety and accident risk. Systematic preference heterogeneity emerges through higher-order interactions, offering insights into WTP relationships. Marginal effects highlight varying sensitivities to explanatory variables, quantifying their impact on WTP probability and magnitude. The framework provides two key contributions. It identifies public WTP determinants, emphasizing heterogeneous effects. It also helps in prioritization safety policies by understanding public sensitivity to WTP. The insights further emphasizing on the importance of road safety interventions to the specific socio-economic profiles of road users. This study offers a significant contribution to road safety improvement by providing valuable recommendations for policy makers. By integrating detailed socio-economic factors, it also addresses the urgent need for targeted traffic safety interventions in Pakistan. These findings are expected to aid policymakers and stakeholders in developing effective strategies to enhance road safety and reduce the accident involvement risk effectively.