Model Prediksi Pelunasan Haji Berbasis XGBoost Dengan Interpretasi Shap: Studi Prediksi Pelunasan Haji dengan XGBoost dan SHAP di Provinsi Jambi

Yan Apriadi; Dodo Zaenal Abidin; Jasmir Jasmir

doi:10.61132/prosemnasproit.v2i2.178

Authors

Yan Apriadi Universitas Dinamika Bangsa
Dodo Zaenal Abidin Universitas Dinamika Bangsa
Jasmir Jasmir Universitas Dinamika Bangsa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/prosemnasproit.v2i2.178

Keywords:

Haji, interpretabilitas model, ketidakseimbangan kelas, pembelajaran mesin, prediksi pelunasan, SHAP, XGBoost

Abstract

This study develops an interpretable machine learning model to predict the settlement status of Hajj fees in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Utilizing the XGBoost algorithm on a dataset of 4,332 prospective pilgrims from 2025, the research addresses the critical challenge of class imbalance where only 28.5% of samples are labeled "Unsettled". The baseline XGBoost model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.7778, with a recall of 0.3482 for the minority class. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was employed to interpret model predictions, revealing that financial features specifically NILAI_VA (Virtual Account Value), JML_SETORAN (Deposit Amount), and JML_PELUNASAN (Settlement Amount) are the most significant factors influencing repayment risk, with negative SHAP values indicating increased default probability. The findings demonstrate that an interpretable XGBoost framework can provide both predictive accuracy and actionable insights for policymakers, enabling targeted interventions such as flexible payment schemes and enhanced financial monitoring for high-risk pilgrims..

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